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Bond funds have provided investors with years, even decades of growth. Is that streak coming to an end with the rally inspired by President-elect Donald Trump?
“People who have owned bond funds for a long period of time, they have had a wonderful ride,” Bob Doll, Nuveen Asset Management chief equity strategist told CNBC’s “On the Money” in a recent interview.
Much of that rally has come via aggressive Federal Reserve bond buying through quantitative easing, but the dynamic is changing. The Fed is poised to hike rates, while a boost of fiscal stimulus appears to be in the cards—all of which points to rising bond yields.
“We’ve had a long-term bull market in bonds, as interest rates have gone from double digits to 1.37 percent,” Doll said, referring to the record low 10-year Treasury yield that hit in July.
“That’s a 35-year tailwind which I think is now turning into headwind,” Doll told CNBC. Continue reading →
NuStar energy is a midstream pipeline and energy storage company with a $6.8 billion value.
The company is rated Ba1/BB+, one notch below investment grade.
While their traditional bonds are yielding 4%-5%, the exchange trade bonds yield nearly 8%.
The exchange traded bonds are misunderstood by the market and are thus tremendously mispriced.
As many fixed income investors have noticed in the past few days, bond prices have come down, especially for longer dated issues. Preferred stock, which is typically perpetual, has also declined sharply. As of this writing, since the election the iShares US Preferred Stock ETF (NYSEARCA:PFF) is down a sharp 3.5%, iShares iBoxx Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:LQD) is down 2.5%, and iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:HYG) is down about the same at 2.5%. Muni bond ETFs are down about 2.0%, in many cases wiping out 9 month of yield. This is interest rate risk pummeling fixed income, and is primarily due to interest rates rising. Over these same days the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate went up from 1.86% to 2.20%, an 18% rise. Although the rate is still very low historically and still below where it began in 2016, the rapid move upwards tends to spook bond investors. Continue reading →
Yields were already rising before the election but took off afterward, which suggests that investors should rethink their portfolios, strategists say
Investors’ long-held worries about low yields and limited investment income have now given way to expectations of rising inflation and higher interest rates.
Interest rates, which had been rising since July, took off immediately after last week’s election, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield from 1.83% at Monday’s market close to 2.07% on Wednesday, after Donald Trump emerged the winner. Continue reading →
Inflation is the primary long-term driver of interest rates.
President-elect Trump’s proposed policies seem to point toward higher future inflation and interest rates.
I reiterate my bond segment recommendations, and those to avoid.
Global interest rates began to rebound in the second half of 2016, and bond prices, which are inverse to yields, began to decline. Then, U.S. rates jumped sharply on November 9th when Donald Trump was called the winner of the U.S. presidential election, which sent bonds plummeting. Today, I will describe market expectations that I think triggered the latest selloff.
We can’t speak about bonds without first mentioning the Fed. Unlike other global central banks, the Fed is no longer buying bonds (other than reinvesting interest). It raised the short-term rate that it directly controls (called the fed funds target rate) by 0.25% in December 2015, and is expected to do so again this December. These two components make up the long, drawn-out process of normalizing Fed policy. Normalizing means that the Fed is gradually stepping away from suppressing rates, and is “handing it off” back to market forces.
Donald Trump could have an ally in Alan Greenspan, the former Federal Reserve Chair, when it comes to financial regulations.
Trump has vowed to ax the Dodd-Frank Act, which was created after the financial crisis to made banks pass stress tests, hold more cash and abide by a litany of new rules to prevent another crisis. Continue reading →
Former Fed chairman says inflation could work to boost yields
Greenspan says readjustment to higher yields entail problems
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan sees longer-term market interest rates increasing as inflation takes hold in the U.S.
“If the early stages of inflation, which are now developing, would take hold, you could get — fairly soon — a fairly major shift away from these extraordinarily low yields on 10-year notes, for example,” Greenspan said in an interview on Bloomberg Television on Monday. “I think up in the area of 3 to 4, or 5 percent, eventually. That’s what it’s been historically.”
Before buying bonds of any company, we must be sure that the mother company is sound. I firstly look at the basic facts of the issuer. If it is a small company in a poorly performing sector, I will look long and hard at its finances. For large, defensive stocks I don’t see the need. Entergy definitely falls into the latter category.
Entergy has a $13bn market cap and a PE of 10.29. It is based in New Orleans, Louisiana and provides retail electricity to approximately 2.7 million customers across Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas. It operates 10 nuclear power plants and is the second largest nuclear generator in the U.S.
Some more facts about the company can be seen below:
Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs
The dividend has been steady in the $3-3.43 range since 2009. This gives a current dividend yield of 4.7%.
Price has been relatively steady and is trading in a large range.
While the stock of RIG is very risky at the moment, its 4-year bonds have a great risk/reward profile.
RIG is drastically reducing its capital expenses from this year and hence its free cash flows will be sufficient to cover its debt obligations for the next few years.
The 6.5% annual yield of its 4-year bonds should not be underestimated by investors.
There are many stocks that deviate too much from my strict criteria and thus I do not follow them on a regular basis. However, while some stocks may be too risky, their bonds may offer a great risk/reward potential. This is exactly the case with Transocean (NYSE:RIG). While the off-shore drilling market is clearly oversupplied, with continuously plunging revenues and no bottom on the horizon, the 4-year bonds of Transocean currently offer a 6.5% annual yield to maturity with minimal risk of default. This yield should not be underestimated by investors, particularly given the zero-yield environment and the all-time high level of S&P (NYSEARCA:SPY), which should limit its future returns from now on. Continue reading →
Distressed securities may be an attractive investment option for sophisticated investors who are looking for a bargain and are willing to accept some risk. Distressed debt investing combines the best of both worlds — the cash flow of debt investments with the appreciation potential of stocks. While there is no hard and fast rule for what makes a “distressed” investment, it’s generally accepted that distressed debt trades at a huge discount to par value because the borrower is under financial stress and at risk of default. Distressed securities are debt securities; most often corporate bonds, of companies that are in some sort of distress.